The Journal of Veterinary Medical Science Potential Impact of Species and Livestock Density on the Epidemic Size and Effectiveness of 4 Control Measures for Foot-and-mouth Disease in Japan 5 6

20 The characteristics of a livestock area, including farm density and animal species, influence the 21 spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). In this study, the impact of livestock area on FMD 22 epidemics was examined using an FMD transmission model. For this simulation, three major 23 livestock areas were selected: the 2010 FMD epidemic area in Japan as the baseline area (BS), a 24 cattle and pig mixed production area (CP) and a cattle production area (C). Simulation results 25 demonstrated that under the 24-hr culling policy, only 12% of epidemics among 1,000 simulations 26 were abated within 100 days in the CP area, whereas 90% of the epidemics ceased in the BS area. In 27 the C area, all epidemics were successfully contained within 100 days. Evaluation of additional 28 control measures in the CP area showed that the 0.5-km pre-emptive culling, even when only 29 targeting pig farms, raised the potential for successful containment to 94%. A 10-km vaccination on 30 day 7 or 14 after initial detection was also effective in halting the epidemics (80%), but accompanied 31 a large number of culled or vaccinated farms. The combined strategy of 10-km vaccination and 0.5-32 km pre-emptive culling targeting pig farms succeeded in containing all epidemics within 100 days. 33 The present study suggests the importance of preparedness for the 24-hr culling policy and additional 34 control measures when an FMD outbreak occurs in a densely populated area. Considering the 35 characteristics of the livestock area is important in planning FMD control strategies. 36 37 KEY WORDS: 38 animal species, control measures, foot-and-mouth disease, livestock density, simulation model 39 40 41 3 42 Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most significant infectious diseases in animals 43 worldwide [35], and its prevention and control is thus of great concern for animal health authorities. 44 In Japan, a large-scale FMD epidemic occurred in 2010 [26], in which control measures including 45 culling of animals on the detected farms; restricting movement of livestock animals, animal products 46 and other contaminated commodities; and strengthening of biosecurity measures on farms were 47 employed. However, within one month after detection, the disease had spread so rapidly that 48 emergency vaccination was performed, and the epidemic was contained. During the three-month 49 epidemic, 292 infected farms were detected, and almost 290,000 animals were culled. Introduction of 50 the disease in an area densely populated …